Deep Dive: Ferrari Product Plans
Introduction
For the dedicated gearhead Ferrari’s unique place in the automotive landscape provides a chance to see automotive engineering less constrained by price and the needs of large-scale mass production. On the softer side of the automotive world, they also have a fascinating history of producing incredibly desirable cars from perspectives of beauty and performance. (If absolute reliability is more your thing, then perhaps I can interest you in a nice Toyota?) For these reasons the company is worth studying and I thought it worthwhile to do something of a deep dive into what I perceive to be their current thinking with regards to design, technology, and product plans.
Most of the information here comes from a September 2018 presentation Ferrari made to the investment community known as their Capital Markets Day. Other information comes from interviews Ferrari staff have given to various publications as noted.
For disclosure, my family owns a small number of Ferrari shares, less than $10,000 worth. Sadly, I do not have access to a company car.
Requirements for Emotion
Ferrari spent a lot of time in their presentation talking about emotion, emphasizing the difference between performance, which I take to mean things like lap times, and what they describe as “fun to drive” character. It’s clear they’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this and they have a good idea of what characteristics they want their cars to have in order to achieve this.
Michael Leiters, Ferrari’s Chief Technology Officer, spoke at length about Ferrari’s requirements to yield a positive emotional response in the driver and the overriding theme is what they call directness, fun to drive character, or even “Go Kart Feeling.” In short, they want every driver input to result in a very rapid, precise response.
This desire for rapid response explains some engineering work in the recent past. For example, the steering ratio in the V8 sports cars was changed from a sporty 16.9:1 (F430) to a zippy 11.9:1 (458 Italia). This change also reduces the frequency with which the driver has to move her hands from the normal grip positions on the wheel in order to negotiate a turn, helping Ferrari achieve their “hands on wheel, eyes on the road” engineering goal. The desire for rapid response also explains the work they’ve done to reduce transmission upshift times from a stately 250ms (F355) to a very fast 30ms (488 Pista).
A special case of responsiveness is the nature of how Ferrari wants their cars to accelerate. Leiters makes clear that they want the car to respond immediately when you floor the pedal and that acceleration, not just velocity, should increase smoothly with RPM. Ferrari calls this “perceived acceleration” because you feel yourself being pushed back into the seat with increasing force for as long as you’ve got the pedal down. “You have to feel like going in heaven. Never ending acceleration. That’s the philosophy of perceived acceleration we think in Ferrari.” Maintaining positive jerk, the time derivative of acceleration, is a big ask of powertrain engineers but that’s what Ferrari is going for.
Finally, Ferrari is well aware of the role sound plays in provoking an emotional response in the driver. They aim for two major characteristics. First, volume should increase with RPM. Second, frequency should also increase through the range of human hearing from bass, through tenor, and into soprano regions. To achieve this different noise generating systems on the car, such as intake and exhaust, might be tuned to different frequencies. Ferrari refers to the overall effect as “music,” as if the car is a musical instrument you play while driving.
New Technology
Drivetrain
Although they’ve used it occasionally in the past Ferrari has recently gone for turbocharging in a big way. Why is that? Let’s take a look at some publicly available data.
Horsepower per Pound of Vehicle Weight (2nd Order Polynomial Fit)
A very simplified view of quantified performance is power per pound of vehicle weight. In this crude way we can see performance steadily increasing since about 1990.
Vehicle Weight (2nd Order Polynomial Fit)
This increase in performance has not been due to reductions in vehicle weight. As we can see, weight has held relatively steady for decades despite improvements in comfort and safety.
Horsepower (2nd Order Polynomial Fit)
Indeed, increased performance has been due to increased power. Where has that power come from?
Engine Displacement (Linear Fit)
Displacement has been increasing over time but there are clearly limits, especially when you want to keep overall vehicle weight as low as possible. There’s no good way, for example, to package an extremely heavy 12 or 14-liter V24 engine.
Engine Power Normalized to Displacement (Naturally Aspirated Models Only, 2nd Order Polynomial Fit)
Finally, we get to the heart of the matter. Ferrari has been finding a lot of their performance by increasing normalized (to displacement) performance, steadily extracting more power per liter of displacement. The highest dot on this plot of naturally aspirated cars is the 812 Superfast at a massive 130 hp/L. But it’s not readily apparent that there is a lot of room to grow for naturally aspirated street engines.
Normalized Engine Performance Since 2010 (Linear Fits)
Now we zoom in to cars since 2010 and add the turbocharged models. As you can see worst of the turbocharged cars, the California T at 142 hp/L, bests even the Superfast. The turbocharged slope is steeper as well, implying that gains are still relatively straightforward to achieve.
In short, turbocharging is allowing Ferrari to keep improving performance even as overall vehicle weight has remained fairly constant.
Using information the Capital Markets Day presentation and combining it with an interview Leiters gave to CAR magazine we can get a pretty good picture of Ferrari’s powertrain plans.
The V12 engine will continue in normally aspirated form for as long as Ferrari feels it can be a viable product in the face of emission and fuel economy regulations. It will, they say, be subject to continuous development.
The V8 engine will continue in turbocharged form and receive “technological step-ups.” I interpret this as meaning a faster rate of technological development than the V12 with as of yet unspecified new technology. As we’ve seen this will almost certainly result in further increases of normalized power (hp/L).
Ferrari also states that a V6 with new architecture is in development. I would interpret this as meaning it will be a different architecture and more advanced than the Ferrari-built 2.9 liter, 505 hp V6 in the Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio. That engine has normalized power of 174 hp/L, midway between the 488 GTB (169 hp/L) and 488 Pista (182 hp/L) so it would be reasonable to expect something in the neighborhood of 180 hp/L or higher.
There are, traditionally, two major complaints about turbocharging. The first is that they change the acoustical characteristics of the engine. Ferrari obviously cares a lot about this as can be seen in a recent patent application for a system to pipe sound from the intake manifold into the cabin. Bozi Tatarevic wrote about this for Jalopnik.
The other complaint, by far the most noted, is turbo lag. (More accurately, this would be split into two problems: excessively high boost threshold and excessive turbo lag.) Reviews of recent turbocharged Ferrari cars appear to be in broad agreement that lag on existing engines is minimal.
Ferrari is planning to augment these V6 and V8 turbocharged engines with hybridization. This is useful capability because it can solve numerous problems at once. It can eliminate perceived turbo lag by applying torque directly to the input shaft of the transmission. It can raise and smooth the power curve of the engine to achieve the desired positive jerk described earlier. And, of course, it can reduce emissions and allow use of the car in EV-only inner cities.
By 2022 Ferrari expects that approximate 60% of its product line will be hybridized including all of the sports car range by 2021. Some of the Gran Turismo cars will have plug-in hybrid technology and electric-only drive capability. Ferrari is enthusiastic about their upcoming hybrid technology saying that it will make the cars more fun to drive while decreasing CO2 emissions.
Suspension
Leiters briefly mentioned that Ferrari is working “new innovative suspension” but they gave no further details. Still, it’s possible to speculate as to what might be in work.
Classic automotive suspension consists of a spring and hydraulic damper, sometimes with an anti-roll bar added. When we think of tuning a suspension for comfort or handling we tend to think in terms of altering the parameters associated with these physical devices: the spring rate, the damping coefficient, and the anti-roll bar stiffness. And, of course, these mechanical systems have grown more complicated over time with things like progressive springs and separate damping coefficients for compression and rebound. In time came the ability to switch between discrete damping ratios, typically soft (comfort) and firm (sport), using small electric motors to adjust the damper mechanism. Recent advances have focused on active management of continuously variable damping. McLaren uses computer-controlled needle valves to select the desired damping in response to road conditions and even uses this capability for anti-roll by increasing the damping coefficient on the outboard dampers. Automotive supplier Delphi developed magnetorheological damping technology, able to adjust the damping coefficient very rapidly by application of a magnetic field, and this technology has been used by many companies including General Motors and Ferrari. With all this history it’s easy to think of suspension tuning purely in these mechanical parameters: spring rate, damping coefficient, anti-roll stiffness.
And yet, thinking this way obscures the true nature of the task at hand. These mechanical devices are really just systems for applying force to the wheel hub. The spring applies force as a function of hub position and the damper applies force as a function of hub velocity. The total force is the sum of the two individual forces. We can, of course, incorporate more parameters into our suspension function by adding anti-roll and driving mode selection. The important abstraction is that traditional suspension can be thought of as a mechanical device for implementing the desired force function.
But consider that force can also be applied electrically, as with a linear actuator. With a digital controller we can program any suspension force function we want, free of the constraints of mechanical systems. Given sufficient bandwidth we could program any ride quality we want as the system responds to road conditions. We could even do tricks like leaning the car into turns like a motorcycle to reduce lateral acceleration on passengers. Bose, the audio company, worked on a prototype system like this for years although it never reached production.
Electric suspension would probably take a large amount of power to operate but, conveniently, the cars most likely to have it will have hybrid powertrains.
Human Machine Interface
At multiple times during the investor presentation speakers noted Ferrari’s design philosophy of “Hands on the steering wheel, Eyes on the road.” The implications of this have been visible for a while with controls gradually migrating from switches and stalks onto the wheel itself. Note the evolution of steering wheel controls from 360 Modena (horn), to F430 (add Engine Start, Manettino driving mode selector), to 458 Italia (add turn signals, lights, suspension mode, wiper controls, shift lights).
Continuing this trend, Ferrari states that they plan to develop an entirely new driver interface that includes a new wheel, instrument cluster, and heads-up display. Somewhat vaguely, they state that “new commands” will be available to the driver suggesting a more sophisticated way of interacting with vehicle software using steering wheel controls.
As Ferrari pushes further into the Gran Turismo sector, they recognize the need for more sophisticated driver assistance. Expect systems such as radar cruise control, lane keeping assistance, and autonomous emergency braking to make their way into Ferrari GT cars. Farther into the future they expect to use more advanced technology, hardware and software, to “enhance the driving experience.” A reasonable guess is that they will continue their work in using technology to bridge the gap between extremely high-performance cars and well monied owners with modest driving skills. This work can be seen in their electric power steering system that helps the driver near the cornering limit by altering feedback through the wheel to suggest the proper inputs.
Product Plans
And now, finally, we can get to the good stuff. What is Ferrari planning to build?
Product Lines and Architectures
Ferrari has decided to organize into four product lines. The first, sports cars, is well known and currently consists of cars like the 488 GTB and 812 Superfast. The second, Gran Turismo (GT), is currently populated with the Portofino, GTC4Lusso, and GTC4Lusso T. One of the primary messages to investors in the Capital Markets Day presentation is that Ferrari is going to push hard into the GT category as a way of increasing sales volume and profit. The third line, Special, will consist of distinctive versions of existing models such as the 488 Pista. Finally, the Icona line will contain very expensive, very limited production models for what Ferrari likes to think of as “special clients.” They also implied that Icona models will, in some ways, preview future production cars in other lines. The first Icona models are the just introduced Monza SP1 and SP2.
Ferrari CEO Louis Camilleri spoke about the Chinese market, noting that “the Chinese love Ferrari but they’re not necessarily drivers and do not necessarily want high performing supercars. And so, part of our plan is to have a range of models that attract the Chinese consumer.” This characteristic of the important Chinese market is clearly driving much of Ferrari’s GT strategy.
To fill these lines with future models Ferrari has decided to focus on two primary architectures. A rear mid-engine architecture is intended for sports car, front mid-engine for GT cars. The rear mid-engine architecture is intended to optimize weight and moment of inertia for optimal handling. The wheelbase will vary for different models, but these cars will likely be for two occupants only. The front mid-engine architecture is intended for GT cars and will accommodate up to four occupants with variable wheelbases. This architecture will support four-wheel drive and the “innovative suspension.” Ground clearance can vary between models. Both architectures will have a new rear-mounted double-clutch transaxle.
Ferrari has stated, but not defined, four seating configurations: 2, 2+, 2+2, and 4. I would assume that “2” is a pure two-seater with the rear cabin wall directly behind the seats like the 488. “2+” I take to mean two seats but with some rear cargo capability such as the 812. “2+2” I take to mean a four-seat car but the rear seats having limited use, such as the Portofino or requiring the front seat to fold for access, such as with the GTC4Lusso. The “4” configuration is, I believe, a true four seat, four-door car.
Future Models
Ferrari announced that 15 new models will launch between 2019 and 2022, or about one every three months.
New Sports Cars
Based on historic trends the 488 line will be discontinued around 2019 or 2020. Ferrari stated that it will be replaced with a two-tier pair of models. One, the lower tier car, will be a direct 488 successor focused on being fun to drive. The other, the higher tier car, will offer “supercar performance.”
The entire sports car line will be hybridized by 2021. This implies that the 812 Superfast’s last production year will be 2020 which is consistent with Leiters telling CAR magazine that it will be in production for a total of four years (2017-2020). The implication, of course, is the 812 replacement will be considered a GT and not a sports car since the V12 is not planned for hybridization.
Speculating now, I would expect the lower-tier car to be a rear mid-engine hybridized turbocharged V6. It may be a 2+ to increase practicality and product separation from the higher-tier car. The higher-tier car will likely be a hybridized turbocharged V8 and may have a “2” seating configuration to minimize weight and improve handling. Ferrari describes development of the higher-tier car as “well advanced.” Both cars will, surely, be available in coupe and spider configurations.
I believe there will likely be a special version of the higher-tier car as well, again in coupe and spider form, conceptually similar to the 488 Pista.
New GT Cars
As stated previously, the 812 Superfast is likely to be discontinued around 2020. By that time its replacement may be Ferrari’s most traditional car from an engineering perspective: a front mid-engine, naturally aspirated, non-hybrid V12 Gran Turismo due, presumably, in 2021.
Based on the lifetimes of the California and California T, the Portofino will likely continue until roughly 2022. The successor will probably continue to be aimed at buyers who might otherwise consider a Mercedes SL, Porsche 911 Turbo Cabriolet, Mercedes-AMG GT C, or possibly even the BMW 8 Series.
Ferrari was explicit in noting their plan for what they describe as an elegant Gran Turismo offering a “unique design inspired by the classic and refined Ferrari Gran Turismo of the 1950s and 1960s.” As a model focused on driving pleasure, style, and comfort I would speculate this car to have a turbocharged V6 engine, possibly in hybrid form, with a 2+2 seating configuration. I would also expect it to have a spider variant, possibly with a soft top in the classic style as opposed to the folding roof of the Portofino.
Big Ferrari GTs such as the 612 Scaglietti and 456 have typically remained in production for about five to seven years. That implies the GTC4Lusso and GTC4Lusso T would go out of production around 2021 or 2022. It makes sense that it would be replaced with a conceptually similar car that fits below the Purosangue (see below) in the product line. That car may switch to a hybridized turbocharged V8 for improved emissions, probably with four-wheel drive.
Finally, we address the Purosangue. This is the car that has been long rumored as the “Ferrari SUV.” CEO Camilleri went to great lengths to separate it from that description, primarily by emphasizing the things that it is not. It is not, he said, an SUV. Nor is it a large sedan. It is, he said, something new in body style. He added that the name, which means thoroughbred, a pure breed of horse often used for racing, may give some clue. The car was originally intended for introduction in 2020 but has now been shifted to late 2022 in order to give more time for development. This is also a clue in that it implies that Ferrari is really pushing itself hard on new technology for this car.
Here’s what we know for sure. The Purosangue will be built on the front mid-engine GT platform. It will have four-wheel drive, elevated ride height, and “advanced suspension.” It will be a true four-seater with four doors. It is being developed with the Chinese market in mind and will emphasize comfort, especially rear seat comfort, with rear seat entertainment and connectivity. In that sense it will be the first Ferrari you would reasonably buy to be driven in, as opposed to driving yourself. It will be available as a plug-in hybrid with turbocharged V8, although other configurations are planned. Finally, as Camilleri added, it will be expensive to the point that the price may limit volume. Given that the GTC4Lusso starts at US$300,000 I would expect the Purosangue to start at no less than US$400,000 and more likely near US$500,000. This is well above the starting price of the Rolls-Royce Cullinan at US$325,000 and nearer the Phantom at US$420,000. Buy Here Pay Here customers likely need not apply.
My sense is that the Purosangue will be something like a long and high roofed wagon with suspension that can, when required, provide increased ground clearance and ride comfort to drive very fast on rough roads, dirt, snow, and sand. It may have a separate trunk but, regardless of that, will have excellent cargo capacity. Taking yourself and three friends for a week of skiing should not be a problem, even if they pack heavy. It will have the full suite of Ferrari technology available for driver, front passenger, and rear seat passengers. It will likely be extremely fast for a large vehicle with good handling enabled by four-wheel steering and the advanced suspension. I would expect Ferrari to go all out on the interior with regards to design, materials, and craftsmanship. It’s not really my sort of car, especially since I’m not at all in the demographic able to afford it, but it should be very interesting from a design and engineering perspective.
Conclusions
In summary, we can viably account for the following new models:
488 Replacement Coupe
488 Replacement Spider
Rear Mid-Engine High Performance Coupe
Rear Mid-Engine High Performance Spider
Rear Mid-Engine Special Coupe
Rear Mid-Engine Special Spider
Portofino Replacement
Elegant GT Coupe
Elegant GT Spider
812 Superfast Replacement
GTC4Lusso Replacement
Purosangue
The remaining models could be variants of these and low-production Icona cars.
The message from Ferrari to the investment community is, in brief, that they have a solid plan for growth in the form of new products and increased sales volume. From an enthusiast and consumer perspective the most interesting parts of this plan are the upcoming hybridization of the product line and an aggressive push into the Gran Turismo space. Aside from traditional Ferrari strengths of performance and style, one gets the sense that they are aiming to make future cars more competitive on features such as driving assistance and infotainment. This is an interesting move for a company whose clients often brag about never turning on the radio so as to better hear the engine. We know Ferrari can build engines as well as anybody in the world, but can they build a good rear seat entertainment system? We shall see. The next four years in Maranello look to be very interesting.
